Democracy's Setbacks in West Africa: Is There a Rational Explanation?
In West Africa, the pluralist political regimes that emerged from the "third wave" of democratization have consolidated in only a limited number of countries, lost momentum in several others, and collapsed altogether in the three countries of the central Sahel. In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military coups have suspended constitutional rule and installed regimes claiming sovereignty, pan-Africanism, and a break with former colonial powers. At least initially, this discourse appealed to parts of the population—particularly young people—who had become deeply disappointed with the preceding democratic experience.
Every country has its own history and circumstances, and political trajectories never lend themselves to strict determinism. One must always beware of the retrospective illusion. Premature democratization makes democratic regression probable, but it does not make it inevitable. Yet there are common factors that help explain why democracy has proved so difficult to consolidate across parts of West Africa, without resorting to conspiracy theories portraying democratization itself as a foreign deception and its subsequent collapse as the outcome of an externally engineered plot.
The argument developed here is different. Across much of West Africa, democracy remained essentially procedural. It introduced multiparty politics and electoral competition but did much less to build the institutions, checks and balances, and mechanisms of political accountability required to turn formal rights into effective citizenship and to support the provision of public goods and development. The inability of elected governments to meet social expectations, reverse state fragility, and—perhaps most importantly—sustain the hope that they could eventually do so progressively discredited democracy itself. This created a new opening for military rulers and authoritarianism: the opportunity to sell, once again, the illusion of greater effectiveness.
I. The Third Wave Reaches West Africa
Samuel Huntington dates the beginning of the "third wave" of democratization to Portugal's 1974 Carnation Revolution. It subsequently spread through Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, the decisive turning point came around 1990, when national conferences, legalization of opposition parties, media liberalization, and competitive elections spread through Benin, Mali, Niger, and other countries, while Ghana and Senegal followed a more gradual trajectory.
The African sequence nevertheless had an important peculiarity. Huntington identified several forces behind democratization, including declining legitimacy of authoritarian regimes, economic and social transformation, changes in the international environment, and demonstration effects from successful transitions elsewhere. West Africa clearly experienced a crisis of authoritarian legitimacy, but its immediate mechanism was distinctive: it emerged largely from the economic crisis of the 1980s and, most certainly, from the political and social consequences of the structural adjustment programmes adopted in response.
Debt, falling export revenues, fiscal imbalances, and sharply higher international financing costs had pushed many states close to insolvency. Governments turned to the IMF and World Bank and accepted programmes involving fiscal retrenchment, subsidy removal, market liberalization, privatization, and restructuring of public enterprises.
In several countries, these measures contributed to the restoration of macroeconomic balance. But they simultaneously imposed severe social costs on populations that were already poor. Restrictions on public-sector hiring, layoffs, declining purchasing power, deterioration in some social services, and increases in the prices of essential goods hit urban populations particularly hard.
This produces an important paradox: in West Africa, democratization was not immediately driven by prosperity and the expansion of a middle class, as a simple version of modernization theory might suggest. It was instead triggered by a profound economic crisis that structural adjustment helped transform into social protest and, ultimately, a political crisis of legitimacy.
II. The Political Economy of Structural Adjustment: From Austerity to Political Protest
By the time this crisis arrived, much of the optimism of the first decades after independence had already faded. The president of Ghana, Kwame Nkrumah's neo-colonialism discourse had linked political sovereignty to industrialization and pan-African ambition, while Félix Houphouët-Boigny's Côte d'Ivoire had built rapid growth around the expansion of agricultural exports. Yet both economies remained insufficiently diversified, highly dependent on primary commodities, and vulnerable to external shocks.
The oil shocks, commodity-price volatility, and the dramatic rise in international interest rates at the end of the 1970s precipitated the crisis. Ghana's economy became deeply disorganized before Jerry Rawlings launched the Economic Recovery Program in 1983. Côte d'Ivoire, after two decades of an apparent "Ivorian miracle," was hit by falling cocoa and coffee prices and rising debt. The same mechanisms, although with differing intensity, affected Senegal, Mali, Niger, and other countries.
Structural adjustment programmes rested on an intelligible economic rationale: restoring macroeconomic stability, correcting price distortions, reducing fiscal deficits, rebuilding market incentives, and encouraging exports. Their weakness was that they frequently underestimated the political and social structures into which the reforms were introduced. This gap between standardized models and national contexts resembles what Jean-Pierre Olivier de Sardan later called "travelling models", triggering the "the revenge of contexts": policies designed according to general principles may produce unexpected outcomes when they encounter local institutional and social logics.
Structural adjustment also had a political economy. In authoritarian systems, rulers commonly depended on relatively narrow coalitions of political, administrative, military, and economic actors. The selectorate theory developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and his co-authors helps explain why governments may accept policies imposing major costs on the majority while protecting the resources required to sustain the coalition on which their political survival depends. Budgetary choices therefore reflect not only considerations of economic efficiency but also the requirements of staying in power.
Several centuries earlier, Étienne de La Boétie had expressed a philosophical version of a similar intuition: tyranny rests less on the isolated power of a single ruler than on a pyramid of interests and dependencies that makes domination profitable to those occupying its intermediate levels.
During the 1980s, however, austerity progressively reduced the resources available to sustain these arrangements while simultaneously expanding the constituency of the dissatisfied.
In Benin, salary arrears and fiscal collapse triggered strikes and mobilization by students, civil servants, and trade unions, culminating in the National Conference of February 1990. In Niger, Mali, and elsewhere, students, unions, associations, academics, churches, and emerging independent media gradually transformed economic grievances into political demands.
The sequence can therefore be summarized relatively clearly: economic crisis → structural adjustment → social costs → protest → crisis of legitimacy → demand for political participation.
The end of the Cold War reinforced this dynamic. The collapse of East-West confrontation reduced the strategic value of many African authoritarian regimes. Western donors placed greater emphasis on "good governance," political pluralism, and political rights. François Mitterrand's La Baule speech in June 1990 symbolized this transformation of the external environment in Francophone Africa.
West African democracy therefore emerged from an encounter between domestic political demand and a newly favorable international environment. It was neither simply imposed from abroad nor the natural consequence of prior economic modernization.
III. Why did so few third-wave democracies consolidate in West Africa?
Social conditions were unfavorable to democratic consolidation
The starting point remains Seymour Martin Lipset's 1959 insight: the more prosperous, educated, urbanized, and socially differentiated a society becomes, the more favorable the conditions tend to be for democratic stability.
This should not be turned into a deterministic law. Relatively poor countries can become democratic, and rich countries can remain authoritarian. Lipset's more durable contribution is to remind us that democracy does not operate in a social vacuum.
Education facilitates access to information and participation. Urbanization and economic diversification produce new social groups. A larger middle class can help moderate distributive conflict. Above all, institutional legitimacy is strengthened when citizens have reason to believe that existing institutions can improve their lives.
At the beginning of the 1990s, such conditions remained weak across much of West Africa. Incomes were low, economies insufficiently diversified, formal wage employment limited, education systems fragile, and public administrations weakened by a decade of fiscal adjustment.
Democracy therefore arrived not "too early" in the sense that Africans should have waited until their societies were supposedly ready for political rights, but in an environment exceptionally difficult for democratic consolidation.
The distinction matters. The argument does not justify authoritarian government as a necessary developmental stage. It recognizes instead that new democratic institutions immediately faced enormous expectations while relying on states whose capacity to satisfy them was extremely limited.
A democracy of political parties rather than a democracy of citizens
A second problem concerns the nature of the party systems created during the transitions. Across West Africa and the Sahel, democratization often produced what might be called a democracy of parties rather than a democracy of citizens. Multiparty competition expanded dramatically, but it did not necessarily produce programmatic parties that were internally democratic and deeply rooted in society.
Daniel Eizenga's work on Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad shows that political liberalization did not necessarily generate a corresponding renewal of political elites. Established actors instead learned to adapt to the new rules. Multiparty competition changed the mechanisms through which power was acquired more easily than it changed the groups controlling it.
Major Sahelian parties are seldom strictly ethnic organizations. Many are broad catch-all parties that present themselves as national but remain weakly differentiated in programmatic terms. Their strength frequently depends on their leaders, patronage networks, distribution capacity, and access to state resources. Numerical pluralism is therefore not synonymous with effective political pluralism.
Dong-Hyun Choi takes the argument further by examining the relationship between political parties and representation in sub-Saharan Africa. In constituencies dominated by one party, nomination by the party may matter more for electoral success than voters' individual assessment of the candidate. When national party leaders control nominations, parliamentarians can have stronger incentives to satisfy party leaders than to respond to constituents.
The chain of accountability is then severed: voter → representative → public policy.
Citizens vote, but exercise limited influence over government between elections. This helps explain why alternation in office is important but insufficient. Institutions must also outlive individual rulers and acquire enough autonomy to constrain them.
Senegal provides a particularly instructive example. Its 2024 electoral crisis revealed both the fragility and the resilience of the system. When the presidential election was postponed, the Constitutional Council overturned the decision; political and civic actors mobilized; the election was eventually held and produced an alternation in power. This was not merely an opposition electoral victory. It was a manifestation of institutional resilience.
Simone Weil and the danger of party capture
The radical criticism formulated by Simone Weil in her 1943 Note on the General Abolition of Political Parties acquires strong resonance in this context. Weil accused parties of three tendencies: replacing individual judgment with collective discipline, placing their own survival and expansion above the common good, and generating collective passions that substitute confrontation between camps for serious consideration of public problems.
It would obviously be misguided to conclude that West Africa should abolish political parties. Parties remain indispensable for aggregating preferences, selecting candidates, and organizing political competition. Their disappearance could simply transfer political capture to informal networks, economic interests, or charismatic individuals.
Weil's intuition nevertheless remains useful: an organization created as an instrument of democracy can eventually turn its own survival into its principal objective.
This is what occurs when programmes disappear behind leaders, party nomination replaces merit, access to the state becomes the principal prize of political competition, and public resources are subsequently used to consolidate the coalition that won the election.
Such a system may preserve the appearance of democracy while imposing too few effective constraints on the exercise of power.
IV. From Schumpeter to Dahl and Sen: What Kind of Democracy?
The distinction between procedural and effective democracy becomes clearer when three complementary approaches—those of Joseph Schumpeter, Robert Dahl, and Amartya Sen—are considered together.
Schumpeter: choosing and replacing rulers
In Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Schumpeter rejects the idea that democracy simply translates a pre-existing and coherent "will of the people." He offers a more modest institutional definition: democracy is a method through which leaders acquire decision-making power by competing for votes.
This approach has an important advantage: it provides observable criteria. Can an opposition organize? Can candidates compete for votes? Can the government lose an election and leave office?
West Africa's transitions in the 1990s largely established this first level. Legal opposition parties, periodic elections, universal suffrage, and the theoretical possibility of alternation represented enormous progress compared with one-party rule and military government.
Yet an electoral procedure can exist without genuinely fair competition. Incumbents may command disproportionate public resources, influence the media, undermine electoral management bodies, use the courts against opponents, or manipulate rules governing access to the ballot.
The problem is therefore not simply whether an election takes place, but under what conditions the election constitutes genuine competition.
Dahl: making citizenship effective
Robert Dahl takes precisely this additional step. Dahl accepts competition among political elites but asks which institutions enable citizens' preferences to be formulated, expressed, and taken into consideration. The practical approximation of this democratic ideal is polyarchy, characterized fundamentally by public contestation and political inclusion.
Meaningful competition therefore requires freedom of expression and association, alternative sources of information, voting rights, eligibility for public office, free and fair elections, and institutions making public policies ultimately responsive to citizens expressed preferences.
This is essential for understanding the West African experience. Democracy does not exist only on election day. Between elections it requires parliaments capable of overseeing the executive, a sufficiently independent judiciary, free media, credible electoral institutions, autonomous civic organizations, and accountability bodies capable of sanctioning abuses.
Ghana has moved closer to this logic through repeated peaceful alternations and acceptance by major political actors of the possibility of losing power. Senegal demonstrated the resilience of such institutions in 2024. By contrast, democratic regression in Benin illustrates how electoral forms can persist while meaningful contestation becomes progressively narrower.
In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military coups went a step further by suspending the Schumpeterian mechanism itself. Once parties, elections, and political freedoms are suspended, political legitimacy no longer rests on an institutionalized possibility for citizens to replace their rulers.
Sen: freedom as both constitutive and an instrument of development
Amartya Sen provides a third step. In Poverty and Famines, he demonstrated that famines need not result from an absolute shortage of food. They frequently arise instead from the collapse of the entitlements through which some groups obtain access to food and other means of subsistence.
In Development as Freedom, the argument becomes broader. Political freedoms are both constitutive of development and instrumentally important to it.
They matter intrinsically because a person who cannot speak, participate, or challenge political authority is deprived of an important dimension of freedom. But political freedoms can also improve public policy. A free press exposes crises. An opposition can force governments to respond to failure. Citizens free to organize can communicate their needs. Competitive elections make it politically costly for governments to ignore disasters affecting large parts of the population.
V. Does Democracy Necessarily Produce Development?
An important objection remains. Defenders of authoritarianism often argue that political freedoms can temporarily be sacrificed to accelerate economic development. Once prosperity has been achieved, democracy will supposedly follow.
The history of some Asian economies is frequently invoked in support of this claim. But this argument confuses correlation with causation. Authoritarian regimes have produced both economic miracles and economic disasters. The relevant question is therefore not whether an authoritarian regime can grow rapidly, but whether authoritarianism enjoys any systematic developmental superiority.
Robert Barro's empirical work points toward a much more complicated relationship. Democracy does not automatically guarantee faster economic growth. Its effects depend on factors such as the rule of law, human capital, the quality of public policy, and institutional performance. Barro also identifies a more robust relationship running from economic development toward greater political freedoms, partially echoing Lipset.
The important lesson lies elsewhere: institutional quality is the principal bridge between democracy and development.
Democracy may support development when it limits arbitrary power, protects rights, strengthens political accountability, and forces governments to provide public goods. But an electoral democracy can also coexist with clientelism, corruption, weak administration, state incapacity, and economic stagnation.
This is precisely the problem experienced across parts of West Africa. Multiparty elections did not automatically transform extractive institutions into inclusive ones. In some cases, they merely changed the way political coalitions competed for control of the state and its rents.
Voting became competitive; the state remained patrimonial. Alternation became possible; the distribution of jobs, contracts, and administrative positions often continued.
Rather than disciplining clientelism, elections could even expand it: more constituencies to satisfy, more activists to reward, and more public resources to mobilize to maintain electoral coalitions.
This is the central paradox of West African democratization.
VI. Democracies without a Democratic Dividend?
Those who demanded political pluralism around 1990 were not asking only for the right to vote. They were protesting unpaid salaries, unemployment, poverty, deteriorating public services, and arbitrary government. Implicitly, they expected democracy to provide two things: freedom and public effectiveness.
In several countries, progress on the first was not followed quickly enough by progress on the second. Rapid population growth brought increasing numbers of young people onto labor markets. Education systems produced more graduates than modern sectors could absorb. Informal employment remained dominant. Weak public administrations constrained service delivery. In peripheral Sahelian areas, the state was already thinly present before the expansion of jihadist insurgencies. Under these circumstances, a democracy that periodically promised change while reproducing the same clientelist behavior between elections inevitably lost credibility.
Afrobarometer surveys nevertheless do not show a generalized African rejection of democracy. A majority still prefer democracy to authoritarian alternatives. But they also reveal a troubling willingness among some citizens to tolerate military intervention when elected governments fail badly.
The distinction is crucial.
Young people who welcome a coup are not necessarily embracing dictatorship as a political philosophy. They may primarily be expressing a desire for rupture after concluding that electoral alternation is no longer changing their lives sufficiently.
Authoritarianism, however, does not resolve this contradiction.
In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military rule does not eliminate economic constraints or incentives for patronage. Instead, it weakens the mechanisms through which these problems can be exposed and sanctioned: independent media, political parties, parliamentary opposition, civil society, and electoral alternation. Military coalitions can and indeed do distribute offices, contracts, and influence to supporters just as civilian coalitions do. The essential difference is that the electoral sanction disappears.
Authoritarian government may therefore initially convey an impression of decisiveness, unity, and speed. But concentration of power simultaneously weakens the mechanisms through which policy errors can be discovered and corrected.
VII. What does this mean for West Africa and the Sahel?
Recent democratic reversals provide no evidence of a fundamental incompatibility between democracy and African societies. They reveal instead the contradictions of unfinished democratization.
The third wave introduced electoral competition into societies where many of the social conditions emphasized by Lipset remained weak and where the state itself lacked capacity. It then too often permitted political elites to adapt new democratic institutions to older practices of personalization, patronage, and rent-seeking.
Democracy consequently remained closer to the minimal Schumpeterian threshold than to Dahl's polyarchy. And when it failed to translate institutional freedoms into effective capabilities and visible improvements in people's lives, it did not generate the democratic dividend citizens reasonably expected.
West Africa's problem, therefore, is not that it experienced too much democracy or adopted a form of government culturally alien to African societies. It is that many countries remained stuck halfway across the river: democratic enough to generate expectations and organize competition for political power, but not democratic enough to discipline elites, make representation effective, build strong institutions, and transform the state into a credible provider of public goods. The answer to democracy's setbacks is therefore not less democracy but more democracy—provided that the region moves from procedure to institutions, from elections to accountability, and ultimately from formal democracy to substantive democracy linked to development.
VIII. What is to be done? From Electoral Democracy to a Democracy of Results
There is, of course, no institutional model that can simply be transplanted across countries. Institutions are path-dependent, and similar reforms can produce different outcomes in different historical environments. Neither the Sahel nor West Africa is a laboratory in which a particular institutional formula mechanically produces a predetermined result.
Several broad directions can nevertheless be identified.
1. Democratize political parties before claiming to democratize the state
Democracy cannot function sustainably when political parties themselves operate as small autocracies. Political organizations therefore need to become less personalized: leadership rotation and term limits, regular internal elections by secret ballot, transparent membership and financing rules, clear succession procedures, and judicial remedies when internal rules are violated.
Candidate selection is particularly important. Credible primaries or other transparent nomination procedures should reduce the discretionary power of party leaders.
There is no need to impose one electoral system everywhere. But where closed party lists give party machines excessive control over legislators' careers, open lists, preference voting, or—in appropriate national circumstances—single-member constituencies may strengthen the relationship between voters and representatives.
The objective is straightforward: a politician's career should depend at least as much on citizens as on the party leader.
2. Rebuild parliamentary representation
In many African presidential systems, legislatures remain institutionally weak in relation to the executive. Yet a member of parliament should not merely be a party agent expected to endorse decisions taken by party leadership. Parliamentary committees require genuine technical capacity; the opposition should chair selected oversight committees; hearings of ministers and agency heads should become systematic; and audit institutions should be able to transmit their findings to both parliament and the public.
Secret ballots may be justified for certain decisions directly involving legislators' institutional independence, but they should not become a general rule that makes representatives less accountable to citizens. Transparency of parliamentary voting ordinarily remains an essential component of accountability.
3. Protect the institutions that allow incumbents to lose
The ultimate test of democracy is not simply whether elections are held. It is whether those in power can genuinely lose them. Priority should therefore be given to independent electoral management, constitutional justice, equitable media access, and strict limits on the use of public resources during campaigns.
Senegal's 2024 experience is instructive. When the electoral process came under threat, it was not the abstract existence of a constitution that protected democracy. It was the presence of institutions and political actors capable of enforcing it.
Democracy becomes consolidated when incumbents know they can lose without losing everything and when their opponents know they can win without destroying the system.
4. Depoliticize the civil service and rebuild state capacity
Democracy cannot acquire lasting legitimacy if the state is unable to function. Merit-based public-sector recruitment must therefore be treated as a democratic priority, not merely a technocratic one. Party membership should provide neither entitlement to an administrative position nor privileged access to public contracts.
Political appointments should be clearly separated from professional administrative careers. Political appointees should constitute a limited layer above a professional civil service whose recruitment, promotion, and compensation follow transparent rules.
Alternation in power should no longer trigger large-scale administrative purges and redistribution of public positions.
Continuity of the state is itself a fundamental institutional public good.
5. Put public goods at the center of political competition
If democracy is to become substantive, political competition must gradually shift from the distribution of favors toward the production of collective results.
Education, primary health care, security, justice, water, electricity, local infrastructure, and employment outcomes should be measured and publicly reported. Governments should publish straightforward regional and local indicators, while legislatures, medias and civil society should systematically track performance.
Democratic politics would change profoundly if electoral success depended more on improving schools, health clinics, electricity supply, and roads than on distributing jobs and favors.
Development must become electorally profitable.
6. Give youth a priority commuserate with its demographic weight
West Africa's most serious political risk may have less to do with ideology than with the absence of prospects. A generation far more educated than its parents is entering economies that do not create enough productive employment. When young people simultaneously observe the enrichment of small elites connected to the state, economic frustration becomes political.
The response cannot therefore be institutional alone. It requires an economic strategy centered on productive transformation: higher-productivity agriculture, agro-industry, urban infrastructure, energy, light manufacturing, tradable services, and the development of firms capable of creating formal jobs.
A democracy that can offer younger generations only a civil-service examination or migration will eventually be held responsible for the impasse.
7. Re-institutionalize civil–military relations
Repeated coups also demonstrate that democratic consolidation is impossible without a clear doctrine of military subordination to constitutional civilian authority.
This requires more than legal provisions. Armed forces must be professional, appropriately equipped, recruited and promoted according to transparent criteria, subject to parliamentary oversight, and governed by internal institutions that discourage the politicization of military careers.
At the same time, security must be recognized as a public good. A state that abandons large territories and their populations loses legitimacy, regardless of how democratic its institutions may be at the center.
Rebuilding the state in the Sahel therefore requires security and accountability simultaneously, rather than the permanent sacrifice of one in the name of the other.
8. Rethinking the regional dimension of democracy and security
Democracy, like security and development, now has an irreducibly regional dimension in West Africa. Coups generate demonstration effects across borders, jihadist insurgencies disregard national boundaries, and some currents of religious revival challenge more broadly the political and institutional norms inherited from the Enlightenment and the modern state. Migration, trade, energy, climate change, and natural-resource management likewise raise problems that individual states cannot effectively address on their own.
It would nevertheless be too simple to conclude that the answer is merely to strengthen ECOWAS. The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger revealed a deeper problem: West Africa suffers less from a shortage of regional organizations than from insufficient coherence among them, poor prioritization of their respective functions, and limited collective capacity to translate interstate commitments into results. The experience of the G5 Sahel, Lake Chad security mechanisms, successive monetary projects, and, historically, Air Afrique all point to the need to examine the institutional conditions of cooperation rather than simply multiply regional structures.
A more promising approach would therefore be not to equate regional integration with any single organization, to rationalize before expanding, and to accept variable-geometry and sequenced integration. European integration provides no model to be copied, but it does suggest that durable integration can begin with a limited number of concrete common interests before gradually expanding.
The objective would thus be less to design a new political union immediately than to begin with the problems that states cannot solve separately—cross-border security, infrastructure, energy, mobility, payments, and management of shared resources—and build credible cooperative mechanisms around them. Regional integration would then become less a rhetorical project of heads of state and more a process for producing regional public goods; and, as with democracy itself, its legitimacy would depend less on the institutions proclaimed than on the results those institutions are able to produce.
Conclusion
West African democracy will probably not be rebuilt by simply restoring the political arrangements of the 1990s. The challenge is precisely to move beyond that model.
The first transition moved countries from one-party rule to multiparty politics and from government without meaningful elections to electoral competition. The next transition must move from electoral competition to institutional accountability, and from accountability to effective state capacity.
That is a far more demanding ambition. It requires democratic parties, autonomous checks and balances, a professional civil service, republican armed forces, and political competition in which providing public goods becomes more rewarding than distributing rents.
Prosperity can help democracy consolidate, as Lipset suggested. But causality can also run in the other direction. A democracy capable of constraining elites, protecting freedoms, correcting its mistakes, and providing public goods can itself improve the conditions for development.
It is precisely this virtuous circle that much of West Africa has yet to set in motion.
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